This will be the third and final installment of my 2019 Dudes & Don’ts Recap series. Today we look at the pitching side of things. If you want more information on the context of these calls as well as the results of the hitters, Parts One & Two can be found here and here, respectively.
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The Starting Pitcher Dudes
The First Dude – Shane Bieber
Projection: 190 IP, 15 W, 3.40 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 200 K
Final Line: 214.1 IP, 15 W, 3.28 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 259 K
Analysis: The process was strong with this one. In my initial write-up, I mentioned that he should blow past the 140 IP that other projection systems were giving him. My final line also included “if he throws more sliders and curveballs in 2019, he could take a big step forward and be a fantasy #2“. He did indeed throw a combined 8.2% more sliders and curveballs and finished as the sixth most valuable SP on the year, behind only Verlander, Cole, deGrom, Strasburg, and Greinke, according to Rotowire’s earned auction values. He is officially a fantasy stud.
The Second Dude – Nick Pivetta
Projection: 175 IP, 15 W, 3.65 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 200 K
Final Line: 93.2 IP, 4 W, 5.38 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 89 K
Analysis: The process was far less strong with this one. Pivetta was a complete disaster right out of the gate and was out of a job by April 17th. So, at least he was someone you could cut bait with right away. I sort of took the same route with Pivetta as I did with Bieber, ogling his sharp K-BB% and optimistic peripherals from 2018. While both pitchers suffer from bad fastballs, Pivetta simply couldn’t command his like Bieber. That led to a .436 xwOBA on Pivetta’s fastball, which was his undoing. I did mention his issues with homers but thought positively that if the HR/FB rate was even league-average, he would improve greatly. 2019’s juiced balls put an end to that notion immediately. He can’t be owned in standard leagues until he can command that fastball.
The Third Dude – Kenta Maeda
Projection: 155 IP, 12 W, 3.45 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 175 K
Final Line: 153.2 IP, 10 W, 4.04 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 169 K
Analysis: What Maeda lacked in ERA, he made up for in WHIP. I pointed towards Maeda’s improved changeup and usage in 2018, in which he used an additional 8.6% more in 2019. He had his ups and downs but was overall a huge profit from his SP65 ADP. His $9 EAV was the same as Aaron Nola, James Paxton, Kyle Hendricks, and Madison Bumgarner.
The Fourth Dude – Tyler Skaggs
I was a huge fan of Skaggs coming into the season. It really seemed like he was finally turning a corner before he was taken from us at the age of 27. Rest in peace, Tyler Skaggs.
The Deep League Dude – Caleb Smith
Projection: 150 IP, 8 W, 3.80 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 170 K
Final Line: 153.1 IP, 10 W, 4.52 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 168 K
Analysis: I managed to nail everything in that projection except the ERA. He was cruising with a 3.50 ERA over the first half before an IL stint and fatigue saw him earn a 5.42 ERA over the second half. His BB/9 jumped from 2.63 to 4.32. Without that improved control, he’s not a huge asset. He was also homer-prone, with a 1.94 HR/9 that ranked second highest in MLB (min. 140 IP). Unsurprisingly, Smith limited homers at home (1.23 HR/9) while getting crushed on the road (2.59 HR/9). If you kicked him to the curb over the second half he was even better, but even if you rolled with him all year, he turned a small profit simply because his ADP was 413. He’ll be much more expensive next year, but I’m not sure I’m very interested, considering his massive regression over the second half.
The Starting Pitcher Don’ts
The First Don’t – James Paxton
Projection: 160 IP, 14 W, 3.65 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 195 K
Final Line: 150.2 IP, 15 W, 3.82 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 186 K
Analysis: I’m not sure what more to say than what I already said in my initial write-up: “Unless you’re going really, really early on pitching, Paxton will be your ace. One thing I want from my ace is a huge workload and consistency. In terms of fantasy aces, Paxton provides neither.” I also mentioned that you’re paying the SP16 price for a Charlie Morton level of production, who was SP29. Paxton is still one of my favorite pitchers, but the fantasy realm needs to price him more wisely so I can draft him next year.
The Second Don’t – Kyle Freeland
Projection: 185 IP, 11 W, 4.15 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 155 K
Final Line: 104.1 IP, 3 W, 6.73 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 79 K
Analysis: This was one of the easiest calls of the year for me. Despite all of Freeland’s improvements in 2018, his numbers were still screaming mediocrity. I didn’t foresee a total disaster like he wound up having but didn’t want anything to do with him at his third-starter price tag. He’s useless in almost every format until further notice.
The Third Don’t – Jon Lester
Projection: 170 IP, 12 W, 4.50 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 140 K
Final Line: 171.2 IP, 13 W, 4.46 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 165 K
Analysis: Once in a while I feel like I know what I’m talking about. His strikeout and walk rates actually rebounded a bit as he wisely moved towards more offspeed stuff. The 35-year-old lefty lost yet another tick from his fastball in 2019 though, and he will be hard to own as anything more than a streaming option in 2020 mixed leagues.
Closers
The Dude – Kirby Yates
Projection: 60 IP, 35 SV, 2.50 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 90 K
Final Line: 60.2 IP, 41 SV, 1.19 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 101 K
Analysis: *Chef kiss* Yates was the 14th closer off the board and finished tied for the second most valuable closer in our game, according to Rotowire’s earned auction values. Josh Hader was the most valuable, for those curious folks out there. He could have been even more valuable, but somehow wound up with an 0-5 record! I mentioned in my initial write-up that Yates ditched his homer-prone slider for an excellent splitter in 2018. He cranked its usage all the way up to 41.9% in 2019, leading to an elite 14.98 K/9. Relievers are finicky, but there’s no reason to think Yates can’t be a strong closer option again in 2020 as the Padres should be a better ball club.
The Don’t – Aroldis Chapman
Projection: 50 IP, 32 SV, 2.50 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 90 K
Final Line: 57 IP, 37 SV, 2.21 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 85 K
Analysis: I still projected Chapman for a strong season but was nervous about investing in him as a top-five closer. I was turned off by recent prior trips to the IL, an inflated walk rate, and diminishing velocity. His velo was down another half tick this year, and as he did in 2018, he relied on his slider even more in 2019 to compensate. He also cut his BB% from 5.26 to 3.95 and was totally fine.
The Deep League Dude – Trevor May
Projection: 65 IP, 20 SV, 3.00 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 90 K
Final Line: 64.1 IP, 2 SV, 2.94 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 79 K
Analysis: Well, May did everything I expected of him except to get the closer gig thanks to a rough start. I did also mention speculating on Minnesota saves with Blake Parker and Taylor Rogers as well since they were dirt cheap. Either (or both) were the way to go, as they combined for 40 saves. Rogers was the real winner here, finishing with 30 saves over 69 innings with a 2.61 ERA, 11.74 K/9, and 1.43 BB/9. Rogers tied with the likes of Kenley Jansen and Brad Hand as a top 15 reliever. Rogers will easily be the guy to own at the back of the Twins bullpen in 2020.
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