Fantasy Points Allowed and DFS Value Plays for NFL Week 2
You have a choice. You can either stick to the preparations you made this preseason and stay the course or you can overreact to one week of NFL action and start making rash decisions. My fantasy points allowed tool is here to help you avoid those bad choices and use factual data to play the percentages. Those of you in season-long leagues can use it to make help make those close calls in your lineups, while other may use it to find the best DFS value plays for Week 2.
I explained how the tool worked in last week’s column, but the basic idea is very simple. Fantasy Points Allowed simply measures how many points each NFL defense allows to the positions of quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. I’ve taken it a step further and optimized the data for the two big boys of DFS (DraftKings and Fanduel), and the two most popular scoring systems (PPR and Standard) on Fantrax.
Since I explained the system last week, this week I’ll use it to try and find a few DFS value plays for the coming week. I’ll also point out a couple quality players who are not in good situations this week.
DFS Value Plays for NFL Week 2
I won’t go into too much depth here. If you play DFS, you’re used to doing the research. I’ll try and point out a few players at each position that are in positive matchups and a few you might want to avoid.
- Matt Stafford put up a dud on Monday night, but in Week 2 he goes up against a San Francisco defense that allowed the third most points to quarterbacks in 2017. He’s not cheap, but in DFS his ownership may be on the low side.
- I’m not a fan of using players in key divisional matchups, but the Packers defense is not exactly air tight. The Vikings defense is very good, but if Aaron Rodgers plays, this game could get in the high 20’s. In that case i like Kirk Cousins to come up big.
- You’re probably not gonna sit Tom Brady in a season-long league, but a very good Jaguars defense is likely to at least slow him down. I’m looking elsewhere for my DFS quarterback.
- Same goes for Aaron Rodgers against the Vikings D. Too much risk for a very high price.
- I’d also be leery of using Russell Wilson in my DFS matchups. The Bears defense looked very good early on against the Packers and as Khalil Mack gets in game shape it will only get better.
Running Back Values
- The Bills can’t really be this bad can they? I’m willing to use my DFS lineups to find out. Melvin Gordon should fare well, but he comes with a sizable price tag. Austin Ekeler will also get plenty of opportunities and represents a great value with nice upside.
- Keep an eye out for news on the Ravens backfield. The Bengals allowed the third most points to running backs last year, so whether it’s Kenneth Dixon or Alex Collins, someone is likely to have a big week.
Running Back Avoids
- Peyton Barber did some nice things in Week 1. Don’t count on a repeat against the Eagles. They allowed the second fewest points to RBs in 2017 and not much has changed. Barber doesn’t really have any contributions in the passing game to fall back on.
- Todd Gurley may be the league’s best running back, but he’s not a great play in DFS this week.The Cardinals allowed the fourth fewest points to running backs last year. Sure Adrian Peterson managed 96 yards in Week 1, but that came on 26 carries. Gurley does add value through the air, but his price tag is still too high for the potential down game.
Wide Receiver Values
- With Alshonn Jeffery still a few weeks away, Nelson Agholor stands to see a lot more action in the near future. That includes Week 2 against a Bucs secondary without Vernon Hargreaves and most likely Brent Grimes.
- Antonio Brown is always a consideration, but Juju Smith-Schuster may be the better value this week against a Chiefs defense that allowed the second most fantasy points to wideouts last season.
Wide Receiver Avoids
- Each week there’s usually there’s a standout performance from one of a host of Patriots receivers. Most week’s the challenge is deciding who it will be. This week it may not happen. The Jags allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers (by a wide margin) last year and their defense looked just as good in Week 1.
Tight End Values
- Can Jared Cook do it again? His career has been all over the map, but he’s certainly set up for success in his matchup with the Broncos, who allowed Will Dissly to go off for 105 yards and a touchdown in Week 1.
Fantasy Points Allowed for Use in NFL Week 2
FYI, the data used below is from the 2017 season. Yes, some teams have changed over the offseason, but a full season of information is still better than a one-game sample size. I’ll switch over to 2018 data starting with Week 4.
|Green Bay Packers||19.69||26.04||36.89||11.29||MIN|
|Kansas City Chiefs||18.37||22.21||38.50||11.38||@PIT|
|Los Angeles Chargers||14.07||25.98||27.89||10.35||@BUF|
|Los Angeles Rams||15.53||26.71||30.64||12.91||ARI|
|New England Patriots||19.02||24.44||36.53||11.94||@JAX|
|New Orleans Saints||18.13||24.06||33.50||10.48||CLE|
|New York Giants||20.46||25.35||33.60||16.91||@DAL|
|New York Jets||19.55||25.19||32.54||12.41||MIA|
|San Francisco 49ers||19.71||26.11||33.93||12.91||DET|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||18.58||26.59||38.94||10.04||PHI|
|Green Bay Packers||18.94||22.38||29.77||7.92||MIN|
|Kansas City Chiefs||17.81||20.12||30.44||7.94||@PIT|
|Los Angeles Chargers||13.88||21.89||22.33||8.04||@BUF|
|Los Angeles Rams||15.34||24.02||23.86||9.82||ARI|
|New England Patriots||17.89||20.94||29.22||8.69||@JAX|
|New Orleans Saints||17.00||20.68||26.19||7.51||CLE|
|New York Giants||19.53||21.98||27.01||13.44||@DAL|
|New York Jets||19.36||22.41||26.39||10.13||MIA|
|San Francisco 49ers||18.96||22.64||26.77||9.22||DET|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||17.64||23.38||31.06||7.14||PHI|
|Green Bay Packers||21.47||19.48||23.96||5.86||MIN|
|Kansas City Chiefs||20.39||18.21||24.06||6.19||@PIT|
|Los Angeles Chargers||16.02||19.11||16.96||5.91||@BUF|
|Los Angeles Rams||17.72||21.52||18.20||7.85||ARI|
|New England Patriots||20.59||18.19||22.84||6.38||@JAX|
|New Orleans Saints||19.43||18.06||20.19||5.86||CLE|
|New York Giants||22.14||19.35||21.35||10.91||@DAL|
|New York Jets||21.80||19.82||20.61||8.23||MIA|
|San Francisco 49ers||21.43||19.73||21.11||7.03||DET|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||20.30||20.72||24.13||5.17||PHI|
|Green Bay Packers||21.47||25.29||35.58||9.98||MIN|
|Kansas City Chiefs||20.39||22.03||36.81||9.69||@PIT|
|Los Angeles Chargers||16.02||24.67||27.71||10.16||@BUF|
|Los Angeles Rams||17.72||26.52||29.51||11.79||ARI|
|New England Patriots||20.59||23.69||35.59||11.00||@JAX|
|New Orleans Saints||19.43||23.31||32.19||9.17||CLE|
|New York Giants||22.14||24.60||32.66||15.97||@DAL|
|New York Jets||21.80||25.01||32.17||12.04||MIA|
|San Francisco 49ers||21.43||25.54||32.43||11.41||DET|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||20.30||26.03||38.00||9.11||PHI|
Scoring Used for Fantasy Points Allowed
DraftKings Scoring: | Pass TD = 4.0 | Pass Yd = .04 | Int. = -1 | Rush TD = 6.0 | Rush Yd = .10 | Rec TD = 6 | Rec Yd = .10 | Rec = 1.0 | Fum = -1 | 2 Pt. Conv. = 2.0 | 3.0 pt. bonus for 300+ Yd Passing, 100+ Yd Rushing, or 100+ Yd Receiving
FanDuel Scoring: | Pass TD = 4.0 | Pass Yd = .04 | Int. = -1 | Rush TD = 6.0 | Rush Yd = .10 | Rec TD = 6 | Rec Yd = .10 | Rec = 0.5 | Fum = -2 | 2 Pt. Conv. = 2.0
Fantrax Standard Scoring: | Pass TD = 4.0 | Pass Yd = .05 | Int. = -1 | Rush TD = 6.0 | Rush Yd = .10 | Rec TD = 6 | Rec Yd = .10 | Fum = -1 | 2 Pt. Conv. = 2.0 |
Fantrax PPR Scoring: | Pass TD = 4.0 | Pass Yd = .05 | Int. = -1 | Rush TD = 6.0 | Rush Yd = .10 | Rec TD = 6 | Rec Yd = .10 | Rec = 1.0 | Fum = -1 | 2 Pt. Conv. = 2.0 |
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