Ramon Laureano has been nothing short of a surprise this season. He came up last season and flashed some of what we are seeing but no one saw this coming. He had a less than stellar start to the 2019 season but has really come around and become a must start player for your fantasy teams. I’m going to dive in and see what is going on.
Is the Ramon Laureano Breakout for Real?
Current Production
Ramon Laureano has been one of the best adds off the waiver wire this year. He has 66 runs, 20 home runs, 57 RBI and 12 steals. He is producing in all categories while also providing a triple slash of .282/.331/.508. In short, It has been nothing short of great.
Laureano has been able to produce at a high level over the past month or so and it hasn’t gone unnoticed. Is this who he is? Let’s keep digging and see what we can find.
Advanced Stats and Batted Ball Data
The first thing that sticks out is the drop on walk rate from last season to this season. It has dropped 4% from the 9.1% mark in 2018 to 5.1% in 2019. However, he has managed to decrease his K rate ever so slightly. His K rate of 27.1%. That is down 1.3% from last season.
These changes would indicate he’s putting a lot more balls in play this year. These days having some swing and miss in your game is acceptable but his k rate is slightly concerning sitting at 5.5% above league average.
Here is where you start to see where he made some changes. Ramon Laureano has not made a change in how much he’s pulling the ball or anything in that area of his game. Those rates all fall in line with last year. The line drive rate (LD%) is almost identical to last season but the notable changes start to show in the ground ball rate (GB%) and the fly ball rate (FB%).
You’ll notice both have moved in a direction you want them too. The GB% is down 7.3% from last season and sits at 36.2% in 2019. You’ll see that change has almost exclusively affected his FB%. It is up 7.2% from 31.5% in 2018 to 38.7% in 2019.
Lastly, a negative change worth noting is the increase in soft contact. It is up to 15.5% this season. That’s an increase of 1.6%. Not exactly a huge increase but still something you don’t want becoming a trend and worth monitoring.
Plate Discipline
When you take a look at the plate discipline, it’s almost curious as to how the k rate hasn’t increased. Ramon Laureano has increased both his swing percentage 5.8% as well as his chase rate 4.5% from just last season. This is also accompanied by a 1.5% increase in swinging strike rate.
These changes indicate he’s becoming more aggressive and there’s more swing and miss in his profile. Unfortunately, the added aggression has not come with more contact. His contact rate is basically in line with last season. This would all typically lend itself to an increase in K% compared to the decrease we’ve seen thus far this season.
The Hot Streak and Splits
Ramon Laureano has actually hit for more power at home vs. on the road. With 12 of his 20 home runs coming in an unfavorable home park, that could suggest better things to come if he falls into the power stroke on the road.
Sixteen of the 20 home runs have come off right-handed pitchers. This is in part because of facing more right-handed pitchers and he actually has similar triple slashes against both lefties and righties.
All in all, he’s just about he same player in the road and home as well as lefties vs righties.
As you can see, he has had ups and downs in batting average over the months and his power has also fluctuated. With that said, it seems to have all come together in July.
Since July 1st he has been on an absolute tear. You can go back a little further but I didn’t think making it a random date in June was the best idea so I decided to focus on the start of July.
You’ll notice in July he has a triple slash of .386/.434/.800 with 7 home runs and 3 steals. This is accompanied by a wOBA of .483 and a wRC+ of 211. When you look a little more into the success, there are some changes that have accompanied it.
Ramon Laureano has improved his walk rate and K rate over the last month. They’ve both improved to just about league average. Which is a great improvement when they’re compared to his season-long numbers.
Other notable changes are in the plate discipline. Laureano has decreased his swinging strike rate to 11.8% and his chase rate to 32.1%. He appears to be making an effort to improve his approach and it shows in the walk and K rate improvements in July. The improved patience is further indicated with the decrease in swing rate which is at 46.5%. This is a 1.8% lower than the overall swing rate on the year.
These changes have also led to an increase in the sweet spot%.
The “sweet spot” is basically balls that are hit well likely resulting in a base hit.
Pitch Mix
You can see he struggles vs. curveballs and changeups and absolutely kills fastballs. With that said, it makes sense they have started throwing more offs speed offerings.
What does not make sense is the increase in fastballs he has seen as of late. You would expect pitchers to possibly adjust their approach as the season continues to progress.
Statcast Data
Lastly, I will discuss statcast data.
As you can see, the statcast data suggests he’s slightly over performing. His expected stats are all lower than his current production. You tend to notice players with high-end speed can outperform the metrics.
Ramon Laureano has sprint speed in the 88th percentile and that is the type of speed that would lend a hand in out producing the metrics. What is also encouraging is in 2018, Laureano also hit over for a BA of .288 with and xBA of .265.
The launch angle has increased as a whole on the year by 4.5 degrees and has really increased as the season has gone on. The increase in FB rates and decrease in GB rates as I previously mentioned could be attributed to this tangible change. You’ll also see the rolling launch angle trends similarly with the rolling sweet spot percentage.
There isn’t any real change in hard-hit rate. It is down 1.5% from 2018. You’ll also notice the barrel rates are also down 1.9% from 11.1% in 2018 to 9.2% in 2019. The current barrel rate of 9.2% is actually below league average. With the xSLG 51 points lower than the actual SLG it further suggests some of these power gains may not be sustainable.
Rest of Season Outlook for Ramon Laureano
Ultimately, Ramon Laureano has been a great get off the wire and no one is going to argue that. The power/speed combo is invaluable in today’s game and he should be owned and started without a second thought in all category and roto formats.
I don’t expect the power gains to sustain the rest of the way. I think he will get to 28 to 30 home runs. The changes in the ball have really helped sustain the gains to this point and he has changed his swing to take advantage of the current environment.
I think he will slightly regress in the power department but will be a solid 5-category contributor to your team the rest of the way.
Mike Kurland is a new contributor for FantraxHQ covering fantasy baseball. He began with Fantrax in June of 2019. He is also the creator and host of The Bases Loaded Podcast. Mike is new as a fantasy baseball analyst but he has really embraced it with open arms. Feel free to reach out to Mike on Twitter @Mike_Kurland with any of your fantasy baseball questions, he is always happy to answer them.
Fantrax was one of the fastest-growing fantasy sites of 2018 and we’re not slowing down any time soon! With multi-team trades, designated commissioner/league managers, and drag/drop easy click methods, Fantrax is sure to excite the serious fantasy sports fan – sign up now for a free year at Fantrax.com.