Dallas Keuchel and Miles Mikolas have been performing on the extreme opposite ends of the performance scale. Are they really that different? Let’s try and figure what lies ahead for these two hurlers.
Fire – Miles Mikolas
It’s about time we talk about some low strikeout pitchers with strong facial hair. First on the docket in the coveted Fire portion of this article: The Mustache. To date, Mikolas has accrued a tremendous 2.43 ERA across 85.1 frames (13 starts), yet no one seems to be talking about him. He’s flying well under the radar in fantasy circles despite the tremendous results.
The reason for that is twofold; first, a 6.64 K/9 isn’t too enticing. Second is the lack of track record. Mikolas is tossing his first MLB innings since 2014, having spent the last several seasons pitching in Japan’s NPB. His previous season in MLB? A 6.44 ERA over 57.1 innings. Not great, Bob. As if his early results weren’t enough to persuade you that he’s left that ugliness in the past, let’s look into what he’s changed and discern why he can keep this up.
His pitch deployment looks nothing like it did back in 2014. He’s throwing about 13% fewer fastballs, opting for more curveballs and sliders to keep batters guessing. His slider has not only been his best pitch – it’s been one of the best sliders in the league. With a 3.26 pVAL on the slider, that pitch sits sixth in MLB behind only Snell, Roark, Foltynewicz, and Taillon. (Related: Blake Snell is good.) It only nets 15% whiffs, but has a 62% GB% and .167 BAA. Not for nothing, he has even upped the velo on his fastball by a tick and a half since ’14. That’s just gravy.
Oh, and then there’s that command. A 0.95 BB/9 has led to a 0.96 WHIP that ranks as 8th best among qualified starters. That number is backed up by an absurd 72.7% first pitch strike rate, which is the highest in baseball. It’s best if you can not only pound the zone but miss bats as well, such as other leaderboard heroes Luis Severino and Max Scherzer. That’s not the type of pitcher Mikolas is. He’s no ace since he simply doesn’t have the swing-and-miss stuff like those guys. A 35.6% chase rate is mighty fine, but just a 9.1% swinging strike rate overall doesn’t tell us that 18.7% K% is going to be rising much.
Mikolas is legit. Is he an ace? No. He won’t accrue nearly enough strikeouts to make that leap. Also, the .259 BABIP and 78.5% strand rate will regress, but you’re still looking at a solid mid-three’s ERA type of starter who will actively help your WHIP and provide you plenty of innings. When you pitch deep into games, the Wins often follow, as his 7-2 record states. I consider Mikolas a true “buy high” type of pitcher who still won’t cost you too much in most leagues.
Ice – Dallas Keuchel
We move from The Mustache to The Beard! Man, that really is an elite level beard. Sadly, whereas The Mustache has been dominating the way Dallas Keuchel of yesteryear once did, Current-day Dallas Keuchel has struggled. While his 6.99 K/9 and 2.33 BB/9 aren’t all that far from Mikolas numbers, the 4.45 ERA and 1.32 are. Things have been particularly bad since May 30, with a 9.00 ERA/1.94 WHIP over 16 innings. That includes a 36-percent hard contact rate, which is extremely un-Keuchel…ey. This is all quite bad. Are we looking at a full repeat of 2016 where he posted a 4.55 ERA over 168 innings?
The key to succes for Dallas Keuchel has been limiting hard contact. Look at these numbers over the past four years and how the hard% correlates to the ERA:
2014: 19.7% / 2.93 ERA
2015: 21.3% / 2.48 ERA
2016: 29.8% / 4.55 ERA
2017: 24.7% / 2.90 ERA
2018: 30.8% / 4.45 ERA
Because Dallas Keuchel isn’t an overpowering pitcher, averaging only 88-89 MPH on his fastball, he relies heavily on locating each pitch expertly. His success comes primarily from inducing weak ground balls. Since his breakout in 2014, he has achieved an elite groundball rate over 60% each year except two…I’ll let you guess which two. His current 54.4% ground ball rate is his lowest since 2012, before he really figured out how to pitch at the highest level. His issue, as you might have guessed if you’re following along, has been location. Or rather, lack thereof.
Keuchel has struggled particularly against lefties, strange as that may seem as a lefty himself, with a .348 wOBA allowed. Diving into his heatmaps provides us with a clue.
Location location location! Keuchel has gone from a mansion in the suburbs to a loft in an alleyway. You can see in 2017 how he successfully pitched down in the zone, even primarily below the zone, to get those weak ground balls. Sure, in 2018 he’s been pitching lefties away, but he’s been much higher in the zone. Those pitches are getting smoked, leading to a whopping 30% line drive rate. That will get you into trouble in a hurry.
The question is, of course, if Keuchel can turn his season around. The short answer is yes. He’s shown that he can command his arsenal as well as almost anyone. That said, would I bank on him turning his season around? Buy low, as it were? That is another question entirely. For me, the answer is no. While we’ve seen what kind of success he can have, that 2016 season looms as a constant reminder that there was a long stretch in which he just couldn’t get right. If you’re in a deep league and desperate for pitching, I could see throwing out a lowball offer. However, in standard mixers, his low strikeout upside prevents it from being worth the risk.