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Daily Preview and NBA DFS Picks for 4/19/22

Yesterday was an incredible (and surprising) slate of NBA DFS. We’ve got another slate of three, Game Twos to keep us occupied tonight. The added layer of NBA Playoff basketball is that you should always expect coaching adjustments to past mistakes. Let’s see what our best options are tonight.

Playing NBA DFS can be incredibly rewarding, but it can also make your head spin. It’s our job to make sure you’re winning as much as possible! There are countless variables that can lead to a player’s individual performance, but I’ve found it’s best to focus on just a few that can lead to better predictability.

My favorite factors to track for NBA DFS targets: Matchups (Offensive/Defensive Ratings), Opportunity (expected player minutes, game pace), and Recent Form.

This is the AM VERSION of a living article that will be updated throughout the day, as news comes through the wire.


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NBA DFS Targets and Preview for April 19

Hawks (43-39) vs. Heat (53-29)

Offensive Rating: 2nd vs. 12th in the league

Defensive Rating: 26th vs. 4th in the league

Net Rating: 14th vs. 6th in the league

Pace: 17th vs. 28th in the league

Predicted Outcome: The Hawks have met their match this postseason. I don’t think I’m being hyperbolic either. They don’t have the firepower to contend with a top five defense in the league. Especially one that switches so well. Trae Young gets a bulk of his stats off of pick and rolls and coming off of screens. When you go from a guard that can stay in front of you, to Bam, who can also stay in front of you, it’s harder to score and pass. This team goes as Trae goes, and Trae is going to have trouble against Miami. Heat should win this one.

DFS Targets: I’ll be fading everyone on the Hawks, except for Gallo. It’s clear to me that with Capela out, he’s getting starter’s minutes in the frontcourt. Even alongside John Collins (who will likely still be minutes restricted). I think Trae is too expensive, Huerter and Hunter are too volatile, and Bogdanovic is having trouble heating up, thus far. On the Heat, I like Jimmy a lot. $8400 is too cheap for his usage. Bam is going to be a better real life player, than DFS player this series with his defensive responsibilities. Herro isn’t getting the usage he was getting in the regular season, so $6600 is too expensive for me. Lowry is a near must-start. Same with Tucker at $3900. One of Robinson or Strus should be in your lineups. I lean Strus, for ownership leverage, after Duncan just dropped 8 threes last game.

Timberwolves (46-36) vs. Grizzlies (56-26)

Offensive Rating: 7th vs. 3rd in the league

Defensive Rating: 13th vs. 6th in the league

Net Rating: 9th vs. 5th in the league

Pace: 1st vs. 7th in the league

Predicted Outcome: I’m more into statistics than the eye test, but it’s hard to ignore the fact that the Wolves have some magic going. They’re oozing confidence, and have withstood every counterpunch that the Grizzlies have thrown at them thus far. There are ups and downs in every series, but if momentum is any indicator, the Wolves matchup well against Memphis, and I expect them to win this game too, and hop out to a 2-0 lead. I’ve been swayed already.

DFS Targets: On the Wolves, you’re going to get great volume and usage from Anthony Edwards. He’s a must start and may be the high scorer on the night. I’m leaning towards being underweight ownership on KAT, if not a fade altogether. He had a great bounce-back game and was incredibly aggressive on both ends. I’m just not sold on him staying out of foul trouble, and he’s too expensive for that risk. If KAT does get in foul trouble, Russell’s usage goes up (see the Clippers’ game), so I’ll have him in plenty lineups. Pat Bev and Malik Beasley are great value plays on the slate. I’m finished playing Vanderbilt, despite the love optimizers/projections continue to give him. On Memphis, I trust Ja and one of Bane or Brooks.

Pelicans (36-46) vs. Suns (64-18)

Offensive Rating: 19th vs. 5th in the league

Defensive Rating: 19th vs. 3rd in the league

Net Rating: 20th vs. 2nd in the league

Pace: 21st vs. 8th in the league

Predicted Outcome: Suns. They’re much better, and it’s visible on the floor and through the numbers. Act accordingly.

DFS Targets: The Suns’ defense is too solid for me to be targeting anyone but a blowout/value play on the Pelicans. I like Alvarado and/or Herbert Jones, sub $4400. Other than that, I’ll be allocating my salary elsewhere. As for the Suns, the usual suspects of Booker, CP3, Ayton, and Bridges. McGee and Crowder could be interesting if you want to get different.

More Fantasy Basketball Goodness: Waiver Wire | Weekly Schedule Preview | Fantasy Basketball Stock Report | NBA DFS Picks

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