We’re getting closer and closer to the NBA playoffs! I can’t believe this year has gone by so quickly, and relatively smoothly (considering we’re still in the midst of a pandemic restrictions in some cities). Nevertheless, as the playoffs draw near, the grand prizes will get larger, so let’s make sure we’re locked in on all the trends over the last few regular season games.
Playing NBA DFS can be incredibly rewarding, but it can also make your head spin. It’s our job to make sure you’re winning as much as possible! There are countless variables that can lead to a player’s individual performance, but I’ve found it’s best to focus on just a few that can lead to better predictability.
My favorite factors to track for NBA DFS targets: Matchups (Offensive/Defensive Ratings), Opportunity (expected player minutes, game pace), and Recent Form.
This is the AM VERSION of a living article that will be updated throughout the day, as news comes through the wire.
LET’S GET INTO THE SLATE!!!!
NBA DFS Targets and Preview for March 28
Nuggets (44-31) vs. Hornets (38-36)
Offensive Rating: 9th vs. 8th in the league
Defensive Rating: 24th vs. 16th in the league
Net Rating: 16th vs. 11th in the league
Pace: 5th vs. 20th in the league
Predicted Outcome: The Hornets will be facing the second half of a back-to-back, so despite the metrics that say Charlotte is the better team, Denver has the best player on the court and will be better rested. I think Denver takes this one, despite the Hornets being at home.
DFS Targets: Denver is facing a pace-up matchup and a tired Charlotte will be facing a pace-down matchup. I won’t be looking for values in this game, but I think it’s safe to stick with the stars. Jokic on Denver. Ball, Bridges, and Rozier on Charlotte.
Magic (20-55) vs. Cavaliers (41-33)
Offensive Rating: 29th vs. 20th in the league
Defensive Rating: 18th vs. 4th in the league
Net Rating: 29th vs. 12th in the league
Pace: 10th vs. 25th in the league
Predicted Outcome: Neither of these teams is particularly great offensively, but the Cavs have an elite defense. I’m not worried about the Magic’s pace against a defense that can stifle them. Cavs win.
DFS Targets: On the Magic, I like Bamba and Carter Jr. (if he plays), as the Magic will be banging around in the paint a lot. The Cavs targets will be Garland, Lauri, and Mobley. Love is a potential value at $6200.
Hawks (37-37) vs. Pacers (25-50)
Offensive Rating: 3rd vs. 17th in the league
Defensive Rating: 26th vs. 27th in the league
Net Rating: 15th vs. 23rd in the league
Pace: 18th vs. 19th in the league
Predicted Outcome: The Hawks have the best player on the court and are overwhelming on offense, while the teams are equally matched in pace and defense. The Hawks should take this one.
DFS Targets: On the Hawks, Huerter is interesting, but he’s hard to trust. Especially at $5700. Gallinari has a nice floor at $5600, considering his rebounding. Trae Young is a no-brainer. Capela is a bit too expensive, even against a weak front-court. Haliburton, Hield, and Brogden (if he plays) on the Pacers. Jalen Smith is perpetually a value, sub $6000.
Kings (27-48) vs. Heat (47-28)
Offensive Rating: 22nd vs. 15th in the league
Defensive Rating: 28th vs. 5th in the league
Net Rating: 25th vs. 6th in the league
Pace: 8th vs. 28th in the league
Predicted Outcome: I don’t care what the Heat are going through right now. They are better than the Kings.
DFS Targets: I won’t be targeting anyone from the Kings against this defense, especially since Fox is looking like he’s out. On the Heat, look at Butler, Bam, Herro, and PJ Tucker for value.
Bulls (43-31) vs. Knicks (32-42)
Offensive Rating: 23rd vs. 10th in the league
Defensive Rating: 12th vs. 21st in the league
Net Rating: 20th vs. 17th in the league
Pace: 29th vs. 13th in the league
Predicted Outcome: The Bulls have the best three players on the court. Both teams have been faltering a bit, but at the end of the day, the Bulls are more talented.
DFS Targets: Randle and Barrett are the only safe Knicks to target. I like Sims for value, as he’s a rebounding machine. On the Bulls, you can count on DeRozan, LaVine, Vuc, and Coby White or Dosunmu for value, as they are sub-$4700.
Celtics (46-28) vs. Raptors (42-32)
Offensive Rating: 14th vs. 11th in the league
Defensive Rating: 10th vs. 1st in the league
Net Rating: 13th vs. 2nd in the league
Pace: 26th vs. 24th in the league
Predicted Outcome: The Celtics are the 2nd best team in the league right now, and they are the best defense in the league. I’m not looking at a single player on the Raptors. I also don’t care the Celtics will be on the second end of a back-to-back. The Celtics are terrorizing the league right now.
DFS Targets: On the Celtics, I like Tatum, Brown, Williams, and Pritchard is the value play if the game gets out of hand.
Spurs (30-44) vs. Rockets (20-55)
Offensive Rating: 16th vs. 26th in the league
Defensive Rating: 19th vs. 30th in the league
Net Rating: 18th vs. 30th in the league
Pace: 3rd vs. 2nd in the league
Predicted Outcome: Spurs should win this one.
DFS Targets: This could actually be a very high-scoring game with a lot of DFS values. No defense will be played and both of these teams play an up and down, fast-paced style. You can find a lot of values and studs in this one. On the Spurs, Murray, Johnson, Poeltl, Vassell, and Walker. On the Rockets, Wood, KPJ, Green, Sengun, Dennis the Menace, Martin, and Mathews.
Warriors (48-26) vs. Grizzlies (52-23)
Offensive Rating: 13th vs. 4th in the league
Defensive Rating: 2nd vs. 7th in the league
Net Rating: 3rd vs. 5th in the league
Pace: 16th vs. 7th in the league
Predicted Outcome: Two great defenses. The Warriors are the better team. The Grizzlies are the hotter team. I won’t pretend to act like I have an edge. It’ll be fun to watch though!
DFS Targets: With the defense that I expect to played in this matchup, I’ll stick with the stars/dependable DFS players. On the Warriors, I like Poole and Klay. On Memphis, you’ll like Bane, Melton, Jones, and JJJ.
Thunder (21-53) vs. Trail Blazers (27-47)
Offensive Rating: 30th vs. 25th in the league
Defensive Rating: 14th vs. 29th in the league
Net Rating: 26th vs. 27th in the league
Pace: 11th vs. 14th in the league
Predicted Outcome: This is the rare game where the Thunder should be easy favorites.
DFS Targets: There’s legitimate blowout risk for this game. I’ll target Thunder players only. Shai is looking like he’ll play, but his price is too much for what could be a minutes limit. Poku, Mann, Bazley, and Roby are good money. Eubanks, Watford, and Williams, are potential Portland targets if you’re not scared of a blowout.