Daily Preview and NBA DFS Picks for 2/19/2021
We follow up a tiny three-game NBA DFS slate, with a massive 10-game slate! The more the merrier! These hefty slates allow us to pinpoint targets and stackable games, as opposed to trying to piece together the best players from bad matchups. Let’s get into it!
Playing NBA DFS can be incredibly rewarding, but it can also make your head spin. It’s our job to make sure you’re winning as much as possible! There are countless variables that can lead to a player’s individual performance, but I’ve found it’s best to focus on just a few that can lead to better predictability.
My favorite factors to track for NBA DFS targets: Matchups (Offensive/Defensive Ratings), Opportunity (expected player minutes, game pace), and Recent Form.
This is the AM VERSION of a living article that will be updated throughout the day, as news comes through the wire.
LET’S GET INTO THE SLATE!!!!
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NBA DFS Targets and Preview for Feb. 19
Warriors (-4.5) vs. Magic; Total 224.5
The Warriors are starting to click a bit. Make no mistake, they aren’t 20-1 in their last 21 games, like the Jazz, but they’d make the playoffs if the season ended today. GSW has the 10th best net rating in the league, while the Magic are 28th in the league. Warriors win this one handily. I don’t know that GSW is rolling enough to blow a team out, therefore, I think we can still target players from this game.
DFS Targets: GSW targets: Curry, Oubre, Wiggins, and Draymond (if he plays). He’s burned me the last few times out, but I’m a huge “Damien Lee for value dart throw” guy. Magic targets: Nikola Vucevic and Michael Carter-Williams
Nuggets (-8) vs. Cavaliers; Total 221.5
My Wizards just beat the Nuggets the other night. I say that for two reasons: 1) I will always bring up when the Wizards win. 2) It means that even though Denver is 5th in net rating and the Cavs are DEAD LAST!!! I think it’s fair to say they aren’t in the place where they can blow anyone out. Because of this, I think Denver wins this one, but we can target both teams.
DFS Targets: Denver targets: Jokic, Murray is heating up again, Will Barton, and Campazzo for value. I don’t know what’s going on with MPJ, but I’m not allocating any salary towards him right now. Cavs targets: Sexland (Darius Garland and Colin Sexton), Allen, and Cedi Osman are all relevant potential plays.
Bulls vs. 76ers (-9.5); Total 229.5
The Bulls are 20th in net rating and the 76ers are 8th. On top of that, the 76ers are 6th in the league in defensive rating, while the Bulls are 18th ranked in offense. I don’t see a path for the Bulls to come out of this game victorious, and the defense can absolutely slow down Zach Lavine. Because of this, I’m projecting this game to be a blowout.
DFS Targets: I tend to avoid blowouts because the starters may only play three quarters, and blowout statistics can be skewed to just one player, or spread out amongst everyone. Neither is really great for DFS purposes. I’ll fade this game, despite the star power.
Hawks vs. Celtics (-4.5); Total 226
This game could be interesting, because the Hawks are 14th in net rating, but the Celtics are 12th. Defensive ratings are 22nd and 13th, respectively. While the offensive ratings are 11th and 16th, respectively. I think the statistic that might tip the scale is pace, where the Hawks are 18th and the Celtics are 24th. I don’t think the Celtics stop their skid quite yet.
DFS Targets: Atlanta targets: Trae Young, John Collins, Clint Capela, and Gallinari seems to be heating up. Celtics targets: Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Tristan Thompson could be interesting in a slower-paced game.
Pistons vs. Grizzlies (-5); Total 222
I’ve been a Jerami Grant hater all year, and guess what…still don’t like him. He’s simply not enough to get the tanking Pistons to beat the Grizzlies. Memphis isn’t much better in terms of offensive or defensive rating, but in terms of being a complete team, I look to the net rating where Memphis is 19th vs. the Pistons 24th. I lean Memphis, but this could be a high-scoring affair.
DFS Targets: Detroit targets: Delon Wright, Jerami Grant, and Mason Plumlee are all interesting. I’m not on the Saddiq Bey hype train, but more power to you if you are. Memphis targets: I like the entire starting five with the team’s middling pace and well-distributed usage, in a potentially high scoring game.
Thunder vs. Bucks (-11); Total 232.5
I want to say Bucks in a blowout, but they’ve lost 4 straight…INCLUDING a loss to the Thunder on the 14th. I guess logic will say, what changed? What changed over the past five days that will make the Bucks beat the Thunder after a recent loss to them? I’ll roll with the Thunder, even though the stats don’t support it.
DFS Targets: Bucks targets: Giannis and Middleton are the only players I’d target. On a struggling team, I’ll just stick with the stars, especially since Lu Dort (defensive extraordinaire) will be shadowing the guards. Thunder targets: Dort, Bazley, and Horford.
Suns (-2.5) vs. Pelicans; Total 230.5
Suns are very good (7th in net rating, 9th in offensive rating, 7th in defensive rating). Pelicans are average (15th in net rating, 28th in defensive rating, 7th in offensive rating). Sometimes it’s as simple as that. The gulf in a very good team and an average team can easily create a blowout in the NBA. I like the Suns.
Raptors (-3.5) vs. Timberwolves; Total 232.5
KAT is great, but he doesn’t make the T-Wolves any less terrible. Maybe that’s an indictment on him. Maybe it’s on the organization (this is where my blame lies). That being said, you couldn’t make me target this game. Whether Kyle Lowry plays or not, I think the Raptors control this from the tip.
DFS Targets: Fade.
Jazz (-3.5) vs. Clippers; Total 225.5
This is the kind of game you stay up for. I mentioned earlier in this article that the Jazz are 20-1 in their last 21 games. I’ll say that again. The Jazz are 20-1 in their last 21 games. That is absurd. That’s Jordan Bulls/Splash Bros Warriors type greatness. Both teams are top four in the league in net rating, but I don’t know if the Jazz will ever lose again.
DFS Targets: I’m probably not going to target anybody on the Clippers, even if Kawhi and Paul George play. The Jazz are 2nd in the league in defense, and the Clippers lineup doesn’t have much continuity lately. Take a look at the Jazz targets: Mitchell, Gobert, Ingles, and Conley. Clarkson becomes a must-play in all NBA DFS formats if Conley misses.
Don’t forget to check back later in the day as Bradlee will be updating his NBA DFS preview with all the info you need to turn tonight’s slate into a resounding success!
If you are reading this on Fantrax.com make sure to head on over to FantraxHQ to check out Brad’s afternoon updates.
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