Daily Preview and NBA DFS Picks for 11/29/21
We’ve got a healthy nine game slate to kick off our NBA DFS week. Because the tournaments are bigger on Draftkings, I’ll focus on those prices, so be mindful if you’re using Fanduel, Yahoo, or any other competitor, that varying prices will also change the attractiveness of each play.
Playing NBA DFS can be incredibly rewarding, but it can also make your head spin. It’s our job to make sure you’re winning as much as possible! There are countless variables that can lead to a player’s individual performance, but I’ve found it’s best to focus on just a few that can lead to better predictability.
My favorite factors to track for NBA DFS targets: Matchups (Offensive/Defensive Ratings), Opportunity (expected player minutes, game pace), and Recent Form.
This is the AM VERSION of a living article that will be updated throughout the day, as news comes through the wire.
LET’S GET INTO THE SLATE!!!!
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NBA DFS Targets and Preview for November 29
Magic (4-17) vs. 76ers (10-10)
Offensive Rating: 27th vs. 6th in the league
Defensive Rating: 28th vs. 22nd in the league
Net Rating: 30th vs. 14th in the league
Pace: 13th vs. 30th in the league
Predicted Outcome: The Magic are a guard-heavy team that likes to run up and down the floor, but the do so poorly. That makes sense considering Cole Anthony is their primary source of scoring (and he’s been out with injury), and Jalen Suggs is still learning how to be an effective NBA guard. The 76ers are last in pace because their entire offense runs through Embiid in the half court. 76ers should take this one, in a slow paced affair.
DFS Targets: Slower paced game takes Suggs, Hampton, and Harris off my board ($5300, $4100, $3500). Really only interested in Carter Jr. on the Magic ($6300). The same goes for Philly, as I’m only working Embiid into lineups ($10500). If he sits, due to load management, Drummond is a must-play at $6900.
Nuggets (9-10) vs. Heat (13-7)
Offensive Rating: 21st vs. 8th in the league
Defensive Rating: 15th vs. 4th in the league
Net Rating: 19th vs. 4th in the league
Pace: 29th vs. 26th in the league
Predicted Outcome: Another slugfest with two teams that operate primarily in the half-court. This is good for playoff teams as the game slows down, but it’s typically not great for targeting/stacking in DFS. Look for Bam and Jokic to have big games in this matchup. Heat are the better team, though, and they should win this one without a doubt.
DFS Targets: Bam and Jokic are the prime plays at $8200 and $11400, respectively. Monitor Jokic, as his wrist injury may prevent him from playing. The two greens are huge value if that’s the case at $4600 and $3800. Butler, Lowry, and Herro are too rich for my blood in this slow-paced affair.
Hornets (13-9) vs. Bulls (13-8)
Offensive Rating: 7th vs. 13th in the league
Defensive Rating: 25th vs. 6th in the league
Net Rating: 18th vs. 5th in the league
Pace: 3rd vs. 14th in the league
Predicted Outcome: LaMelo wants to push, and that’s working for the Hornets and co. as it’s led them to a winning record and legitimate playoff contention. The Bulls are making their bones on defense and execution in the half-court. They can also run if they need to. This will be a fun matchup to watch, but the Bulls are the better team.
DFS Targets: LaMelo is worth every bit of his $10400, but against the 6th ranked defense, I’ll probably avoid his running mates in Bridges and Hayward ($8000 and $6300). As for the Bulls, LaVine, DeRozan, and Vuc are all in play ($8800, $8700, and $8300). Coby White could provide incredible value at $3700.
Thunder (6-13) vs. Rockets (3-16)
Offensive Rating: 28th vs. 30th in the league
Defensive Rating: 14th vs. 20th in the league
Net Rating: 26th vs. 29th in the league
Pace: 15th vs. 1st in the league
Predicted Outcome: Yuck. Should be a fast-paced game, though. Target the guards. I won’t pick who will win, because both teams might lose.
DFS Targets: Focus on the guards in this one. Giddey, Dort, Porter Jr., and I’ll throw in Wood because he is a rim runner ($6500, $5400, $6800, and $8200).
Pacers (9-13) vs. Timberwolves (10-10)
Offensive Rating: 15th vs. 17th in the league
Defensive Rating: 13th vs. 11th in the league
Net Rating: 12th vs. 11th in the league
Pace: 19th vs. 12th in the league
Predicted Outcome: Two average teams with two average records. In my (very large) brain, it makes sense to only target average salaries in this matchup. Stay away from players priced like stars.
DFS Targets: Turner at $6100. Beasley at $4400. Duarte at $3900.
Cavs (10-10) vs. Mavericks (10-8)
Offensive Rating: 22nd vs. 18th in the league
Defensive Rating: 9th vs. 19th in the league
Net Rating: 16th vs. 21st in the league
Pace: 24th vs. 27th in the league
Predicted Outcome: That pace statistic stands out for me in this matchup. The Mavs go as Luka goes, and Luka goes very slowly. His usage rate is so high though, that his pricing is usually always justified. Mobley and Allen are important pieces for the Cavs, which explain why they play so slowly. But I’ll be honest, watching Garland run the point has been incredibly fun to watch, and he plays faster than their pace suggests. Cavs are the better team in my opinion.
DFS Targets: Luka at $11300 is about where my limits are against a top ten defense. But he’s restorable. I’ll pass on Kristaps at $8600. As for the Cavs, just stick with the bigs in a slow paced game. Allen at $7500 and $6700 for Mobley.
Wizards (13-7) vs. Spurs (5-13)
Offensive Rating: 19th vs. 24th in the league
Defensive Rating: 12th vs. 16th in the league
Net Rating: 13th vs. 23rd in the league
Pace: 23rd vs. 5th in the league
Predicted Outcome: Wizards have a better offense and a better defense. I’m not worried about how quickly the Spurs play, considering that they do it inefficiently. Wizards should win this one.
DFS Targets: Murray at $9600 is cheap compared to what superstars that are averaging ~50 points per matchup are priced. He’s a virtual lock. But that’s it on San Antonio. For the Wizards, I’ll stick with Beal, Gafford, and Harrell ($9200, $4700, and $6100).
Trail Blazers (10-10) vs. Jazz (13-7)
Offensive Rating: 4th vs. 1st in the league
Defensive Rating: 29th vs. 5th in the league
Net Rating: 15th vs. 2nd in the league
Pace: 18th vs. 17th in the league
Predicted Outcome: The Jazz are elite in every facet of the game. The Blazers just know how to score. The Jazz should handle this game from tip-off, to final whistle.
DFS Targets: No Blazers. The Jazz defense is too solid, and this slate is too large. Mitchell and Gobert are the only Jazz players you can count on for consistent points ($8100 and $8500).
Pelicans (5-17) vs. Clippers (11-9)
Offensive Rating: 26th vs. 25th in the league
Defensive Rating: 27th vs. 2nd in the league
Net Rating: 27th vs. 9th in the league
Pace: 20th vs. 10th in the league
Predicted Outcome: The Pelicans have trouble scoring all by themselves, they don’t need to face the 2nd best defense in the league. Expect the Clippers to win this one, easily. I’d avoid targeting Pelicans players, altogether.
DFS Targets: I’ll avoid this game altogether. Potential blowout games are rarely good for DFS purposes, especially on a large slate. Stick with Paul George at $10200 if you must.
Don’t forget to check back later in the day as Bradlee will be updating his NBA DFS preview with all the info you need to turn tonight’s slate into a resounding success!
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