As we receive more and more data, it’s fun to dig into the surface and underlying metrics to figure out what’s going on. In this week’s Buy or Sell article, we’re looking at a struggling hitter and a surprising pitcher to figure out if their profile is sustainable. One player came via a request of a reader and coincidentally I planned on digging into Jon Gray since I’m intrigued by Rockies pitchers like Germán Márquez. We’ll dig into Jorge Soler to figure out what’s going on there as well. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter with any questions or comments. You can find the other buy or sell pieces here.
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Buy or Sell – What’s Going on with Jon Gray & Jorge Soler
Jon Gray, SP, Colorado Rockies
Back in 2018 and 2019, hype surrounded Jon Gray since he often pitched better at home in Coors Field than away from Coors Field. That’s a bit uncommon in comparison to how Rockies pitchers fared at home. In 2018, Rockies pitchers ranked 27th with a 4.63 ERA. Then in 2019, Rockies pitchers ranked dead last with a 6.20 ERA at home. Take 2020 with a grain of salt since it occurred in the shortened season from the summer to the fall, but Rockies pitchers once again finished last with a 6.52 ERA at home.
Outside of 2020, Jon Gray consistently pitched better at home in terms of an ERA and wOBA allowed standpoint. Let’s look at what’s going on with him in 2021. Gray holds a 3.12 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 22.8% strikeout rate, and 9.6% walk rate in 40.1 innings. He has four quality starts that interestingly all came at Coors Field. Gray’s strikeout and walk rates look similar to his career norms of a 23.7% strikeout rate and a 7.7% walk rate.
His current BABIP of .257 is lower than his career BABIP of .318. Furthermore, Gray’s 77.8% LOB% looks a bit higher than his career (70%) though not too far off from a couple of his better seasons in 2017 and 2019. According to EV Analytics Park Factors, Coors Field ranks first with a 1.12 BABIP park factor, meaning Coors Field boosts BABIP by 12%. That plus a currently low BABIP allowed means that Jon Gray’s BABIP will even out.
Pitch Mix & Results
As we dive a bit deeper, we don’t notice too many differences other than a slight tick-up in Jon Gray’s slider usage. However, the results on the slider don’t look drastically different from an O-Swing%, swinging-strike rate, and whiff rate perspective. Even Gray’s wOBA allowed on the slider looks similar to previous seasons outside of 2020. However, keep in mind that Gray dealt with a shoulder injury that likely impacted his effectiveness last season.
We’re mostly noting the slider due to some research on which pitches change the least in terms of the movement profile. Some of that research can be found here in a FanGraphs community research article. Unfortunately, when we look at Run Values on Baseball Savant, Jon Gray’s slider gradually declines in overall effectiveness.
- 2021 Slider: -2 Run Value
- 2020 Slider: +3 Run Value
- 2019 Slider: -18 Run Value (wow!)
- 2018 Slider: -4 Run Value
- 2017 Slider: -12 Run Value
In 2019, Jon Gray finished with the 25th best pitch in terms of Run Value. That’s pretty interesting when looking at the leaderboard as he sits tied with Clayton Kershaw’s four-seamer and Aaron Nola’s curveball.
Learning more about pitch movement and results for Rockies pitchers home and away intrigues me quite a bit. Granted it’s a small sample, but the results raise eyebrows as I dug into the game by game data for whiff rates on Jon Gray’s slider at home and away.
Should We Buy or Sell Jon Gray?
It’s difficult to roster any Rockies starting pitcher even though I admittedly love Germán Márquez. So, should we buy or sell Jon Gray? Nothing drastically looks different overall, which makes me quite curious. Even Gray’s ERA estimators of a 3.68 FIP, 3.84 xFIP, and 3.17 SIERA aren’t too far off from his 3.12 ERA. He’s also limiting hard contact evidenced by his 3.09 xERA on Baseball Savant. We’re noting this because the ERA estimators appear to back up his quality performances in 2021.
Gray continues to look like a matchup-dependent streamer in 15-team leagues that fantasy managers can hold onto during his solid performances. Unfortunately, in trade leagues, Gray likely won’t net much in return because it’s safe to imagine other fantasy managers have skepticism with Rockies starting pitchers. He seems to buck the trend of pitching better at home, which also is a bit risky if he faces the Dodgers, Padres, or other tough offenses. Overall, he’s interesting and someone I’ll keep tabs on throughout the season.
Update: On Wednesday, Jon Gray pitched at home against the Padres. Gray lowered his ERA to 2.93 after he pitched 5.2 innings with one earned run (three unearned runs), three walks, and six strikeouts. Once again, his slider elicited quality numbers with a 43% whiff rate and 42% CSW%. Keep in mind that the Padres were without Fernando Tatis Jr., Eric Hosmer, and Wil Myers on Wednesday.
Jorge Soler, OF, Kansas City Royals
After a career-best 2019 season where Jorge Soler hit 48 home runs, he struggled a bit with injuries throughout his career. In 2019, he didn’t land on the injured list, but in 2020 he struggled with an oblique strain that probably contributed to the struggles. Last season, Soler hit eight home runs, 17 runs, and 24 RBI with a .228 batting average. Interestingly, his BABIP jumped to .317 in 2020 up from .294 in 2019, but maybe that’s not too surprising since BABIP doesn’t take into account home runs. Meanwhile, his strikeout rate also increased to 34.5% in 2020 compared to 26.2% in 2019.
So far in 2021, Jorge Soler has three home runs, 12 runs, and 22 RBI with a .200 batting average. His strikeout rate of 29.4% is up from 2019 and his 8.1% walk rate is a career-low since 2015 with the Cubs. Soler stuck out when sorting the FanGraphs leaderboard and he ranked towards the bottom of the league with an 82 wRC+. That means Soler is performing about 20% below the league average. Soler came into the season with an ADP inside the top-150 in NFBC leagues, so he’s likely sitting on starting rosters unless a manager has massive depth.
Batted Ball & Plate Discipine Data
Let’s dig a little deeper into the batted ball and plate discipline data to see what’s going on with Jorge Soler. In terms of plate discipline, Soler’s 81.3% Z-Contact% dipped slightly from his 83.7% Z-Contact% in 2019, but not far off from his career average of 81.2%. Although his O-Swing% and the swinging-strike rate aren’t far off from career averages, Soler is making more contact outside the zone with a 54.2% O-Contact%. That’s up from around 47% in 2019 and 2020, but not too concerning if the quality of contact remains. Generally, we focus on chase rate (O-Swing%) and contact rates overall and in the zone.
A couple of other notable stats that stand out include his increased pull rate and lowered HR/FB rate, but the lowered HR/FB rate isn’t surprising given his cold start. I expect the HR/FB rate to increase with more batted ball events given his fly ball heavy profile. Soler typically used a pull-heavy profile with a 46.8% career pull rate, but he’s pulling the ball 53.8% of the time in 2021.
Anytime a hitter pulls the ball this much and begins struggling, it leads me to the Statcast shift metrics.
When looking at the shift data, it looks like opposing defenses adjusted to Jorge Soler after his breakout 2019 season. In 2020, opposing defenses almost doubled their shift rate and he struggled a bit more than in 2019. In 2021, he’s pulling the ball more and teams keep shifting on him, and Soler’s wOBA looks dreadful so far. That’s a bit concerning if Soler doesn’t adjust.
Soler Power
Jorge Soler continues crushing the ball with a career-best 59% hard-hit rate. That’s just silly. Soler also has a 14.1% barrel rate, which dropped from 16.6% in 2019 and 18.9% in 2020. His maximum exit velocity remains high at 114.7 mph, which falls in line with his career norms. When we sort by exit velocity on FB/LD, Soler ranks 33rd with a 96.9 mph exit velocity.
Outside of Jorge Soler’s hard-hit rate, his barrel rate and exit velocity on FB/LD dropped slightly so far in 2021. However, with more batted ball events, we’ll likely see the Soler power fall more in line with recent seasons.
Should We Buy or Sell Jorge Soler?
Before digging into the data, I figured Jorge Soler is an automatic buy low player. Sure, he’s off to a slow start, but the increased pull rate and lowered success against shifts look worrisome. However, Soler isn’t chasing a ton and he’s still making similar contact overall and in the zone compared to his breakout 2019 season.
When looking at his rolling wOBA on FanGraphs, Soler showed ups and downs even during his 2019 season mostly boosted by his unreal second half. I expect Soler to turn it around, so be patient since it’s still early in the 2021 season.
For more help, check out Eric Cross’s latest Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire column.
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