About a week ago, a buddy brought up Robbie Ray. My snap judgment involved “no, this can’t be real.” However, with back-to-back starts with zero walks through 12.2 innings and 14 strikeouts, it made me ask – should we buy or sell Ray? It then led to digging into Robbie Ray to figure out what’s going on. The same goes with veteran Danny Duffy to see if he’s legitimate or not.
For Pavin Smith, the Diamondbacks suffered several injuries that catapulted him into more playing time. Fortunately, he took advantage of the opportunities so far. Can these three players maintain their level of success? Or are they in for some regression? We plan to answer all of that and more. If you missed any of the recent buy or sell articles, you can find that here, including the most recent of Zach Plesac and Charlie Blackmon. If there’s a player you’d like me to dig into, hit me up on Twitter. That said, let’s dive into this week’s buy or sell.
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Buy or Sell – Robbie Ray, Pavin Smith, & Danny Duffy
Robbie Ray, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
Admittedly, I overlooked Robbie Ray heading into the 2021 season. In 2020, Ray finished with a 6.62 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, 27.1% strikeout rate, and 17.9% walk rate. He typically struggled with walks, but never a walk rate over 13.3% back in 2018. At this point in his career, we know he struggles with walks yet strikes out a ton of hitters though he may hurt your ratios. We’ll note that heading into 2020, Ray attempted to adjust his mechanics using a shorter arm action, but it didn’t quite turn into positive results.
Lot of buzz around Robbie Ray these last few days. His arm-action change is pretty substantial. Sky is the limit if his walks come down.
Also noticed his momentum towards home plate is direct. Still a 3B side fall-off but more controlled. #DBacks pic.twitter.com/p3pVB7KRz0
— Lance Brozdowski (@LanceBroz) July 19, 2020
After the Diamondbacks traded him to the Blue Jays, Robbie Ray developed a relationship with Blue Jays pitching coach Pete Walker. The idea behind his mechanical adjustment heading into 2020 involved better control and command. However, that didn’t work out so well since his walk rate ballooned to a career-worst rate. In an article in The Athletic, Ray noted that Walker suggested he simplify things and “just pitch.” Sure, it’s a narrative, but sometimes we don’t always have stats and metrics to quantify the psychological aspect of the game.
Through 22.2 innings across four starts, Robbie Ray has a 2.78 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, a 21.7% strikeout rate, and a 9.8% walk rate. So far, it’s Ray’s lowest strikeout rate since 2015 and his lowest walk rate since 2016. Hopefully, the strikeout rate ticks up a bit, but we love the walk rate so far. Ray’s ERA estimators stand out with a 4.83 FIP and 4.50 SIERA. However, his low ERA looks unsustainable early on given his .237 BABIP allowed and 93.5% LOB%. When we compare that to Ray’s career .311 BABIP allowed and 75.2% strand rate, it’s safe to expect his current BABIP and LOB% to even out.
Plate Discipline
Although Robbie Ray’s strikeout rate dropped, his 12.6% swinging-strike rate is closer to his career 12.1% swinging-strike rate. As we dig a little deeper, a couple of notable plate discipline metrics include his 46.8% Zone% and 74.7% Contact% compared to a contact rate around 69% and a Zone% ranging from 36-38% over the past three seasons (2018-2020). That means in 2021, Ray is pounding the zone with his pitches and pitching to contact more often than the past three seasons.
As we look at Robbie Ray’s pitch mix and results, he increased his four-seamer usage to over 60% up from 47% in 2020 and 42% in 2019. Meanwhile, Ray is pounding the zone with his four-seam and it looks like he’s pitching to contact in 2021. That makes sense with his decreased strikeout rate. However, his four-seam is resulting in a higher swinging-strike rate so far.
Often, we have pitchers lowering their fastball usage to increase their offspeed or breaking pitches. However, Robbie Ray flipped the script and the results look positive so far. We’ll also note Ray’s four-seamer velocity increased to 95.3 mph up from 93.9 in 2020 and 92.4 in 2019. This profile of pounding the strike zone and pitching to contact may limit the whiffs but should help with the walks, assuming he doesn’t allow too much hard contact.
Should We Buy or Sell Robbie Ray?
Given the early season success paired with Robbie Ray’s pitch mix and plate discipline changes, I’m leaning towards buying into his solid start. Although I’m not all in, call me intrigued. Sure, the BABIP allowed and LOB% will even out to possibly raise the ERA and WHIP. However, Ray made some significant changes backed up with the advanced metrics.
As I'm digging into Robbie Ray, he's made interesting changes…
-Increased four-seam usage up to 60.5%
-Pitching to contact – 74.7% Contact% overall
-Pounding the zone – 46.8% Zone%
All of this and more will end up in my next buy or sell article up on @Fantrax #FantasyBaseball— Corbin (@corbin_young21) May 2, 2021
Early on, even Ray’s four-seamer velocity increased which adds to our intrigue. Before the season if someone asked – should we buy or sell Ray? I likely would’ve rolled my eyes at considering Ray. Overall, we need to have an open mind with pitchers like Ray, especially when they make intriguing and positive changes. Hopefully, on Tuesday night, Ray doesn’t blow up for a poor outing.
Pavin Smith, 1B/OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
In recent weeks, my intrigue for Pavin Smith has grown, particularly in 15-team leagues. Smith either led off or batted second in 14 straight games for the Diamondbacks. With injuries to Kole Calhoun and Ketel Marte, Smith keeps hitting and earning playing time. Smith made a brief debut in 2020 with one home run, seven runs, four RBI, and one steal with a .270 batting average in 44 plate appearances. Then in 2021, Smith has three home runs, 13 runs, ten RBI, and one steal with a .260 batting average in 102 plate appearances.
So far, it’s a solid career start for Pavin Smith who hit 12 home runs and two steals in 2019 with a .291 batting average at Double-A. One concerning area involves Smith’s 53.8% ground ball rate, but that’s not uncommon given his minor league track record of high ground ball rates. Interestingly, Smith lowered his pull rate so far in 2021 to 35.9% down from 40% and higher throughout his career. However, that works fine with his 94.4% Z-Contact% and 83.8% Contact% with a 6.8% swinging-strike in line with his minor league track record.
Statcast Metrics
Here’s where I salivate a bit with Pavin Smith, which involves his Statcast metrics. Through 78 batted ball events, Smith’s hard-hit metrics move us closer to answer the question of whether we should buy or sell this hitter. Smith rocks a 9% barrel rate, 110.8 mph maximum exit velocity, and a 52.6% hard-hit rate. Sure, nothing mind-blowing, but he also boasts a 96.8 mph exit velocity on FB/LD (No. 22) right behind Bo Bichette. That’s good company.
Should We Buy or Sell Pavin Smith?
Through the first month of the season, it looks like Pavin Smith earned the leadoff spot. Since Kole Calhoun landed on the injured list due to surgery on his hamstring, it gives Smith more breathing room to hold down that spot. Even when Ketel Marte returns, Marte will move up towards the top of the lineup, but there’s still room for Smith. Unless Smith turns ice-cold for an extended stretch, he should keep earning playing time. Especially in 15-team leagues, buy into Pavin Smith’s hot start with the increased opportunities, high zone contact rate, hard-hit rate, and exit velocity on FB/LD to back it up.
Danny Duffy, SP, Kansas City Royals
Don’t look now, but Danny Duffy recorded four quality starts in five games and allowed two total earned runs in 30 innings. Duffy has a 0.60 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 28.8% strikeout rate, and 7.6% walk rate. So far, Duffy holds a career-high strikeout rate and near career-best walk rate. We’ll note that Duffy’s 95.4% LOB% appears unsustainable with a career 75.2% LOB%. Even his .245 BABIP looks a bit unsustainable, but his BABIP before this most recent start fell in line with his career .292 BABIP. So what changed?
Plate Discipline
First off, Danny Duffy holds a career-high 13.9% swinging-strike rate and career-best 34.2% O-Swing%. We notice a trend with a higher swinging-strike rate relates to a lower ERA and FIP, nothing groundbreaking, but worth noting.
Duffy’s four-seamer velocity increased to 93.8 mph up from around 92.2 mph in 2020. The swinging-strike rate on his four-seamer ballooned to 14% compared to 10.3% in 2020 and 7.7% in 2019. Part of that’s due to hitters making less contact on the four-seamer with a 73.9% contact rate compared to 80.4% in 2020 and 83.9% in 2019.
Furthermore, Duffy’s four-seamer has decent vertical movement with 2.4 inches above the league average. Given the 97% Active Spin and 11-12 o’clock observed movement, it appears that Duffy’s four-seam is riding up, and potentially eliciting more whiffs.
Meanwhile, Danny Duffy’s slider and changeup elicited a slightly higher swinging-strike rate so far in 2021. Interestingly, Duffy’s zone rate on his changeup increased to 52.7%, and the zone contact dropped significantly in the small 2021 sample.
Should We Buy or Sell Danny Duffy?
Once again, we’ll note that the .247 BABIP allowed and current 95.4% LOB% looks unsustainable given Danny Duffy’s minuscule 0.60 ERA. Even though the ratios will regress a bit, I’m buying Duffy’s hot start more than I’m selling. His added four-seamer velocity partially contributed to the improved results, particularly with his swinging-strike rate and whiff rate.
He’s also locating his pitches quite well with some four-seamers up, sliders down and away to lefties, and peppering changeups down and away to righties. As long as the velocity stays up, I’m digging Duffy so far as a deep-league streamer that could push up into must-start status in 15-team leagues.
For more help, check out Eric Cross’s latest Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire column.
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