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ADP Analysis- ADP Free Agent/Trade Risers

It has only been a few weeks since the new CBA has been approved, and we have had a slew of MLB transactions that are already affecting the ADP landscape. Some are more notable names via free agency or trades. Some are smaller names that have been given new chances to gain a fantasy impact. Others were so far down the ADP that any positive change in their fantasy outlook would significantly boost ADP.

When digging into this article, I used NFBC OC ADP from March 1 to when the player changed teams and compared it to their NFBC OC ADP since the transaction. Of course, as time continues to go on, the ADPs will continue to change, but you should get an idea of what to expect with the player’s movement. Lastly, this should help with your upcoming drafts to know how much you may need to move players up your draft board if you want to land them on your fantasy teams.

Not all players will be discussed in this article. Instead, I will highlight a good amount of the significant changes and, more importantly, the ones that I feel will have a fantasy impact for the good or bad this season. So, let’s look at some of the biggest ADP movers based on transactions over the last couple of weeks.

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ADP Free Agent/Trade Risers

Jonathan Villar, CHC (257 -> 211)

Villar signed with the Cubs on March 19th, and in just a couple of days, he has seen his ADP jump 46 spots. Villar has five straight seasons with double-digit home runs and stolen bases while playing less than 142 games in three of those seasons. Villar can be a significant fantasy asset, even in a utility role on a bad team. He should be just that with the Cubs this year, allowing him to keep his incredible multi-position flexibility. I was grabbing some shares of Villar, hoping he would land on a team that could use his flexibility, which has happened with the Cubs. Unfortunately, the BAT X has Villar projected for another double-digit power and speed season in only 111 games. If you are into Villar, move him up your draft board and be prepared to draft him around pick 200.

Luke Voit, NYY (273 -> 223)

Voit is getting a considerable bump in ADP as playing time has become available for Voit. He was blocked in New York with Anthony Rizzo back at first base and many DH options. Now he heads to the Padres, where he should be the primary DH and play some first base as Eric Hosmer’s time in San Diego continues to dwindle. We know Voit has insane power when healthy, but that is the problem. The ADP bump is fair and will likely climb more, just know that Voit has only played more than 68 games once in his professional career. Draft him for his upside but be ready for the trip to the IL that will likely come with rostering Voit.

Kris Bryant, COL (56 -> 34)

Talk about a Coors Field bump. Bryant was already a do not draft based on his draft price for me, but the bump in ADP, because he is playing in Coors Field, will move me off of him as well. Bryant does bring a steady .265+ average with 25 home runs, 75+ runs, and 75+ RBI upside. That’s a decent stat line, but he will not steal many bases, which is a negative for me at such an early pick. The days of the MVP Bryant hitting nearly 40 home runs while driving in well over 100 runs and scoring over 100 runs are gone. He will be playing for a bad Rockies team that will also hold back his production. Other players with similar profiles are going later in the draft, so I will pass on Bryant’s inflated ADP.

Gary Sanchez, MIN (282 -> 250)

At first, I was surprised by the movement in Gary’s ADP, but it started to make sense when looking at his overall situation. With the Yankees, he was catching from time to time while also playing DH from time to time. With his poor defensive skills, the Yankees did not want him to catch too often, and they also had plenty of DH options. Now, with the Twins, he should play much more often. Sanchez can slide into the everyday DH role and catch from time to time with Ryan Jeffers. The Twins have also been good at improving their catchers’ defensive skills; look at Mitch Garver, so that could help Gary too. He has only played between 106-122 games in three of the last four full seasons and was still a power asset. If he can DH more while still catching from time to time, leading to 130+ games, then we could see a significant power season from Sanchez, making him quite intriguing as a C2 on your fantasy teams.

Andrew McCutchen, MIL (335 -> 304)

McCutchen signing with the Brewers is great for Cutch but a bummer for Tyrone Taylor and some other fringe fantasy players on the team. Cutch heads to a hitter-friendly ballpark and should play nearly every day. Early reports say McCutchen should spend a lot of his time at DH, which will only help his health and fantasy upside. He may not run as much as years past but still has 20+ home run upside with tons of runs and RBI upside. McCutchen’s value should continue to climb as he makes for a solid late-round outfielder for your fantasy team.

Josh Donaldson, NYY (212 -> 182)

I loved Donaldson all draft season due to his outstanding ADP. Now that he is a member of the Yankees, his ADP has jumped a bit, and I will have to debate the decision a lot more. Donaldson is an injury concern, but that is not accurate as he has played at least 135 games in seven of his last nine full seasons. When he plays, he is outstanding with 24 or more home runs in eight of those seasons with solid runs, RBI, batting average, and OBP. He will be in a great Yankees lineup and should thrive again this season. For all the love Justin Turner gets on draft day, I change that love to Donaldson and enjoy his excellent stat line plus a replacement player.

Seiya Suzuki, CHC (173 -> 147)

Suzuki is making his debut in the bigs after an excellent career in Japan. The ADP was in limbo as we did not know where he would play, but now we do. The Cubs may not be the most incredible landing spot, but he will play every day and should put up decent numbers. He was a 25+ home run bat in Japan with an excellent batting average and other nice counting stats. The projections are torn on Suzuki, but he is projected to hit around 20 home runs with a .250 average and even 8-10 steals. Suzuki could be a risk, but a risk worth taking as an OF4.

Nelson Cruz, WAS (185 -> 162)

The ageless wonder finally signed with a team, and the ADP is climbing. Rightfully so, as Cruz is a perennial power source to go with the counting stats and batting average that are excellent for any fantasy team. He will sit in the middle of a solid Nats lineup which will not hurt. Hitting behind Juan Soto and in front of Josh Bell should lead to plenty of fantasy goodness. A stat line of .260/30/70/80 is an excellent floor with even more upside for Cruz, and he has been a focus for me on draft days since the signing.

Carlos Rodon, SF (114 -> 95)

Rodon was a player I was out on all draft season since the White Sox would not give him a qualifying offer and has a long history of injuries, including shoulder problems. However, the Giants gave him a nice contract, and there are not many better landing spots for Rodon, thus his jump in ADP. I am still not 100% in on Rodon, but I am intrigued. The bump in ADP is challenging, but the strikeouts should still be there in bunches for Rodon, and if he can somehow give you 150 innings, he should pay off his ADP. That may be a BIG IF, but one that may be a game-changer at the same time.

Chris Bassitt, NYM (138 -> 119)

Bassitt is coming off a strong season with the A’s, and a move to the Mets maybe even better for Bassitt this season. He is now the number three of four in the Mets rotation, which lines up nicely for some juicy matchups. He should be able to eat up innings, continue his strong ratios, and hopefully rack up strikeouts like he did last season. Some intelligent analysts are worried about Bassitt’s pitch mix, but it has been working for him, and the move to the Mets may make his mix even better. I am not worried about Bassitt, and he makes for a nice SP3 on draft day.

Matt Chapman, TOR (188 -> 174)

Chapman may get one of the most significant offensive boosts on this list as he moves from spacious O. Co to the lovely Rogers Centre. Sure, Toronto now had a humidor that limited offense a bit last season, but it will still be a significant upgrade from Oakland. Chapman was battling a hip injury all of 2021 but still hit 27 home runs even though he hit .210. His contact quality has always been elite, and joining the loaded Jays lineup may make Chapman even better. Expect the batting average to increase and a potential 30+ home run season on tap. Chapman’s ADP should continue to rise, and I would be willing to take him another 30 or so picks higher.

Trevor Story, BOS (36 -> 22)

Story’s ADP was stuck in limbo as we awaited his final destination. Signing with the Red Sox is outstanding. Sure he may pepper the Green Monster for doubles and not home runs, but the power will be fine, and the batting average should climb from last season. Story should still run as well, maybe not as much as previous seasons, but still enough to bring back a considerable fantasy return. He is currently the fourth shortstop off the board, and I am willing to debate him passing Tim Anderson as the third shortstop. Feel confident drafting Story another five to ten picks higher if need be on draft day.

Kenley Jansen, ATL (85 -> 72)

Even though many were critical of Jansen’s 2021 season, he finished 38 saves, giving him 38+ saves in seven straight seasons. The strikeout rate is still elite for Jansen, and if he could limit the walks, he will be just fine with the Braves. He will join a Braves team that allowed Will Smith to rack up 37 saves. Roster Jansen comfortably, and I would even draft Jansen over Aroldis Chapman on draft day.

I have left off some other ADP risers, but most were ten or fewer jumps. Of course, that could continue to change as draft season rages on, so keep an eye on others. Hopefully, this article brought to light some excellent players climbing up ADPs and let you know how much you will need to jump them in your drafts if you want to roster them.

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