As I’ve written more than once in the weeks leading up to the 2019 NFL Draft, the second day of this year’s festivities is filled to the brim with running back talents for every taste. Want a bruiser between the tackles? The 2019 draft has you covered. Want speed and pass-catching ability? Done and done.
However, where the 2019 NFL Scouting Combine was concerned at least, one of those Day 2 tailbacks put on a show that stood above all the others. That tailback was Oklahoma State’s Justice Hill, a 5’10”, 198-pounder who gained nearly 1,500 yards on the ground with 15 scores back in 2017 before a decreased workload and rib injury led to a dip in stats last season.
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As Bucky Brooks wrote for NFL.com, despite pulling a hamstring on his second 40-yard dash attempt at the combine, Hill left quite an impression on scouts in Indy.
“Hill put on a show in a brief but spectacular appearance,” Brooks said. “He blazed the turf with a 4.40 40 and added some impressive numbers in the broad jump (10-foot-10 inches) and the vertical jump (40 inches). All of those figures ranked first among running backs. Despite cutting the workout after pulling up lame on his second 40-yard dash, Hill left a positive impression on scouts as an explosive athlete.”
That’s rather Hill in a nutshell, according to Thor Nydstrom of Rotoworld—flashes of electric talent interspersed with a disappointing lack of size and patience.
Justice Hill is an Electrifying (and Flawed) Running Back
“Hill’s blood is Monster energy drink,” he said. “His feet move so quickly and recklessly that he can get ahead of himself and sprint unwittingly into trouble, a man without a plan. Hill is more athletic than Motor Singletary and Miles Sanders and Damien Harris and, well, about 95% of the running backs who have entered the NFL over the past decade. But Motor and Sanders and Harris can see three moves ahead. Hill is too ADD for all that. He’s your middle school friend without a PlayStation playing “Mortal Kombat” for the first time, just smashing buttons.
“Hill’s size or lack thereof is going to be a problem in the pros when it comes to pass protection,” Nydstrom continued. “Hill is appealing because he has clear traits that could play very well in a rotation. If he can improve on his pass blocking — at least he gives effort? — he could make an early dent as a third-down option. We already know he can catch.”
Lance Zierlein of NFL.com offered up the same player comp for Hill that Nydstrom did—Phillip Lindsay of the Denver Broncos.
“Hill is an undersized but excitable runner with a go-go tempo that can work for and against him on any given series,” Zierlein said. “He runs tough along the interior and has the vision and agility to slip tackles, but his lack of size and explosive top-end play speed could work against him. Hill might not have the skills needed to handle third-down duties, so he could be pigeon-holed as a try-hard backup with average upside.”
Not exactly a glowing recommendation.
However, there are those in the draft community who believe that Hill’s ceiling could be a fair bit higher. “Hill projects as a potential feature rusher at the NFL level,” Kyle Crabbs of the Draft Network wrote in comparing Hill to Marlon Mack of the Indianapolis Colts. “Hill illustrates high end lateral quickness and cut ability, plus a diverse attack in the open field to put defenders in a bind. Hill needs to cut down on the greedy plays, he’s guilty of overworking his cuts and would be well served to make one cut on the second level and work for gained yardage. Hill will not find much success pushing the pile but teams featuring a lot of inside/outside zone concepts would feature him most effectively.”
Colleague Joe Marino is on board with that assessment. “Hill’s ability to see the field, manipulate the second level and attack creases combined with his exceptional elusive traits makes him and ideal runner in a zone-heavy scheme,” he said. “He offers considerable upside as a receiver and is reliable in pass pro, making him an option for every down. Hill should immediately factor into his NFL team’s rotation as a complementary back with the upside to be the focal point of the rushing attack by year three.”
Now that’s a little more like it.
Justice Hill Fantasy Prospects
From a fantasy perspective, Mike Tagliere of Fantasy Pros looks at Hill as something of a Theo-Riddick (plus) type. “After running the fastest 40-time among running backs at 4.40 seconds, many are starting to take notice in Hill,” Tagliere said. “He’s just 198 pounds and isn’t going to be a workhorse in the NFL, but he can be lightning to someone else’s thunder in the right backfield. Think of someone like Theo Riddick, but a bit more elusive.”
Davis Mattek of RotoExperts sees a bit more than that—although he concurs that Hill is probably never going to be a bell-cow back. “Perhaps no running back in this class will benefit more from the changing nature of the NFL than Justice Hill,” he said. “Ten years ago, some of the hard-nosed Big 10 rushers in this class would have been flying up draft boards. Now, a player with Hill’s change of direction ability and long speed is more desirable to NFL teams. As I continue to rework my rankings, I think that it’s possible that Hill ends up being one of my top-five running backs and if he goes in the second or third round of the NFL Draft, he could be a first-round rookie pick. A very good comparison for the style of player is Giovani Bernard. Bernard is also a shorter/smaller running back though Hill is a faster and more explosive player by workout numbers.”
It’s hard to argue that Hill’s odds of becoming a 20-touch player aren’t especially good. Yes, Lindsay’s become an every-down back at less than 200 pounds in Denver, but he much more exception than rule. He also runs a lot heavier than his actual weight. Even Mike Gundy saw fit to scale Hill’s workload back in 2018 in Stillwater.
However, just because Hill’s not a great bet to ever be a top-10 fantasy tailback doesn’t mean there’s nothing to like. His speed and athleticism are undeniable—if he can learn to control and focus the latter a little bit better coaches are going to want to get him on the field—and then get him the rock. More than one draftnik has compared Hill to Bernard, but I think he has the potential to be a much better runner and every bit as dangerous catching the ball out of the backfield.
Barring a striking confluence of events that thrusts Hill into a big role early, he’s going to be a late-draft dart-throw in most redraft fantasy leagues in 2019. Dynasties are a trickier call—Hill’s landing spot could have a substantial impact on his value there—both in the short(ish) and long term. With that said, if Hill lands with a team with an offensive staff that knows how to utilize his natural abilities and develop his prodigious natural talents, he could wind up in RB3 territory in startups and the latter part of the first round of rookie drafts.
A member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and Pro Football Writers of America who resides in Columbus, Ohio, Gary Davenport has been featured on a number of fantasy websites and in nationally circulated publications, including the USA Today Fantasy Football Preview and the magazines distributed by Fantasy Sports Publications Inc., for whom Gary is both a contributing author and associate editor. Gary is an eight-time FSWA Award finalist and two-time winner who has been a finalist for that organization’s Fantasy Football Writer of the Year award each of the last three years. He won the honor in 2017. Gary also appears regularly on Sirius XM Radio (including live from Radio Row at Super Bowl XLIX) and over-the-air stations across the country. He knows football. Or so he’s heard.
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